14 Riskiest Countries in the world 2013

According to London-based risk management consulting firm, Aon Plc., these are the 14 riskiest countries in the world.  Each one ranks 6 on a scale from one to 6; with 6 being very risky.  While few people travel to or do business with these countries, these are the political and economic hotbeds of frustration outside of the developed world where people will be murdered, killed in a war, or threaten to do the same to others far away.  The political risky ranked in ABC order”

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AFGHANISTAN

Afghanistan, after decades of conflict, continues to suffer from a very high degree of political violence and all other measured elements of political risk. The government’s lack of influence over the entire country contributes not only to supply-chain delays and disruptions but also to weak response to shocks. Even with a weak government that lacks full legitimacy, intervention in business and levels of corruption remain high, meaning its involvement is not particularly positive. Afghanistan has made it easier to open a business, but infrastructure deficits, a lack of access to credit and regulatory risks support entrenched players and the vested interests see little benefit in expansion.

CHAD

Chad, an oil exporter in West Africa, continues to exhibit significant political risk stemming from the diversity of its population, low levels of education and high government interference in the economy. The political situation in Chad changed little in 2012, though the persistently high oil price eased fiscal and financial woes, allowing the government to pay back some of its arrears, but not offering enough capacity to invest in necessary infrastructure.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

The Democratic Republic of Congo maintains significant political and security risk as the government in Kinshasa struggles to hold the country together, with an uncertain business climate impeded by poor investor protection. Growing dissent from the political opposition and the threat of a civil war in the east of the country exacerbate political uncertainty.

HAITI

Haiti's extremely low level of government effectiveness, high level of corruption, weak regulatory quality and rule of law and lack of protection for all property rights undermines the environment for investment. This weak governance contributes to high levels of political violence.

IRAN

Iran has high levels of political risk and a weak business environment, exacerbated by the effect of economic sanctions, which brought pressure on the exchange rate, facilitated corruption and reinforced high levels of government and military intervention in the economy. The government and connected leaders have been able to use the period of sanctions to consolidate power and undermine the role of private business. Political violence, supply-chain disruptions and political interference in the country are among the highest in the Middle East. Rule of law, accountability (and other freedoms) are weak and susceptibility to corruption is high.

IRAQ

The current political stasis is looking ever-more precarious due to domestic and regional pressures as sectarian divides become more entrenched. Ten years after a U.S.-led armed forces invasion, the country still suffers high levels of political violence, only behind the likes of Syria, Afghanistan and Somalia on a global scale. Despite vast oil reserves, an ineffective government fractured by sectarian divisions has failed to implement the legal reforms necessary to attract sufficient international investment and expertise or build out infrastructure.

NORTH KOREA

North Korean is like a war zone. The opaque nature of the regime makes it impossible to know the degree to which Kim Jong-un has been able to consolidate control since assuming power in 2010, and raises additional legal and regulatory risks for investors.

SOMALIA

Somalia, a failed state in East Africa, has an extremely hostile political and business environment, with foreign activity virtually nonexistent and all key types of political risk very high. The overall security climate has improved somewhat after al Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabab militants were driven out of the capital Mogadishu in August 2012, but the threat of attacks and kidnappings remains very high. After two decades without a government, the newly elected authorities have little presence and authority outside the capital.

SUDAN

Sudan, a large country in northeast Africa, faces very high levels of political instability, reflecting ethnic and tribal divisions, and mounting fiscal problems following the secession of South Sudan in July 2011 and the loss of most of its oil revenues. The two countries continue to skirmish over the border, undermining oil production and investment. Growing political uncertainty increases the likelihood of outbreaks of political violence. Photo by AFP.

SYRIA

Syria is in the midst of a violent conflict, which does not make it conducive to any business activity. All forms of political and security risk are very high and Syria is becoming increasingly isolated. Supply-side disruptions are extreme and the civil war has hit the previously rapidly growing services sector (mainly tourism and banking) very hard. Assistance from Iran and Russia is likely to prevent a fully-fledged sovereign debt crisis.

VENEZUELA

Venezuela continues to have elevated risk indicators across the board, with particularly high exchange-transfer, legal and regulatory readings. High oil prices have strengthened the government's ability to meet its debt payments, although the fiscal accounts have significantly worsened in 2012 and willingness to pay remains an elevated risk.

YEMEN

Yemen is a failed state on the Arabian Peninsula, with large parts of the country effectively lawless and the economy in freefall-unemployment is above 50% and modest oil exports have been curtailed by repeated attacks on pipelines. Militant Islamic groups led by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) established strongholds in the south of the country, and regional fragmentation grew following the ouster of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2011. These terrorist groups pose a threat to Saudi Arabia, upon which the U.S. continues a military campaign against Islamist groups in coordination with local and Saudi authorities.

ZIMBABWE

Zimbabwe, a landlocked country in southern Africa, continues to suffer from a very high level of political risk, with rifts over the electoral process, including the date of the next presidential poll, frustrating the power-sharing framework and signaling a possible crisis. Economic and social disparities undermine social cohesion and may provoke unrest, adding to instability. Frequent bouts of violence and a restrictive and uncertain regulatory framework make the operating environment for business extremely challenging, with very weak property rights not supportive of investment. The narrow revenue base leaves the government with a weak capacity to respond to shocks, particularly as rising external debt levels heighten the importance of international aid. 

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