The Nigerian political climate is increasingly getting tense
as the 2015 general elections draw near. In fact, there are permutations that
the elections may hold by November 2014, if a new electoral law demands that
all polls be concluded six months before the swearing-in date.
Questions are being asked about the men and women that will
be the major players this time round. Political parties as well as individuals
are warming up for the great battle ahead. It is time for political
strategising and calculations all aimed at ensuring victory at the polls. Other
Nigerians cannot help but watch patiently - and curiously too - as events
unfold.
Meet the strong men who will make things happen in the days
ahead:
CHIEF OLUSEGUN OBASANJO
After ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo voluntarily resigned as
Chairman of PDP Board of Trustees (BoT), a civic reception was organized in his
honour. According to the organisers then, Obasanjo is an outstanding statesman
and an icon and is being celebrated for his exploits on the political landscape
of Nigeria in the past 50years.
“Having dominated the Nigerian public life in a way no other
person has for the past 50 years, the symbolism of another retirement is not
lost on us. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo has effectively become the father of the
nation, a political oracle and a living legend whose life is worth
celebrating,” they said.
After leaving office in 2007, he has been practically
responsible for the enthronement of two subsequent governments and speculations
are rife that he wants to repeat the feat in 2015.
It is also noteworthy that most of the members of the
breakaway faction of the PDP are loyal to Obasanjo and the import of his
absence at last Saturday’s special convention of the ruling party was not lost
on political observers.
With the current trend, nobody is sure which direction
Obasanjo is heading to, but the choice he makes will surely make or mar the
2015 election.
GOODLUCK JONATHAN
President Jonathan is probably the chief among those who will
make or mar the 2015 elections. A lot will depend on what he chooses to do or
not to do concerning 2015. His party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which
prides itself on being “the largest political party in Africa” and has sworn to
hold on to power for 60 years, is now battling for survival. It has been
politically difficult (though there are a few exceptions) to defeat an
incumbent in Africa, more especially if the incumbent is desperate and
hell-bent on returning.
MUHAMMADU BUHARI
Former head of state General Muhammadu Buhari is a household
name, although not much was heard of Buhari until the establishment of the
Petroleum (Special) Trust Fund, PTF, and the end of the military interregnum
that ushered in the present democratic dispensation in 1999. He appeared on the
Nigerian political landscape determined and resolute to clinch the No. 1
position again as executive president. A dogged politician, he has run for the
office of the president of Nigeria for three consecutive times: 2003, 2007, and
2011.
ATIKU ABUBAKAR
Within the Nigerian political landscape, the Turakin Adamawa
and former vice-president, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, is like a big masquerade.
Atiku is among those expected to run for president come
2015. He seems to be calculating possible advantages from the current crisis
rocking the ruling party. In line with this, he is currently in a move with
seven PDP governors to possibly float a new party or take control of the PDP.
A consummate politician, he has the wherewithal to finance
elaborate campaigns.
BOLA AHMED TINUBU
A politician’s politician, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Asiwaju of
Lagos, can be said to be about the only politician in Nigeria who has regional
control and, from his base, he is now about to come out and expand his
political tentacles and influence all over the country.
SENATOR DAVID MARK
The Senate President, Senator David Mark, is undoubtedly one
of the politicians whose roles will affect the outcome of 2015 election. As the
president of the Nigerian Senate, he enjoys the loyalty and confidence of the
senators whose support will be sought by almost all candidates who are
interested in winning elections.
Whichever political divide Mark may lean on will be counting
their advantages. Therefore, which side he may take will go a long way in
determining the outcome of the elections. More so, if Mark eventually declares
interest in contesting for any office higher than what he is occupying now,
then the sound of the music will definitely change.
AMINU WAZIRI TAMBUWAL
The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Bello
Waziri Tambuwal, just like David Mark, is another force to reckon with. As the
leader of the lower chamber, Tambuwal who also enjoys the loyalty and the
confidence of the House of Representatives has the potential to determine where
a block of votes will go in the election.
This is because Tambuwal, in his position, has a great
influence which can play significant role in determining which camp enjoys the
majority, if not all of the members of the house will give their support. As
far as the outcome of 2015 elections is concerned, Tambuwal is not a political
figure to disregard.
CHIEF ANTHONY ANENIH
Popularly called “Mr. Fix It” and Jonathan’s right hand man
for now, Tony Anenih is the current BoT chair of the PDP and one of the
deciders of who gets what in the embattled political fraternity. Anenih’s
doggedness and political dexterity is legendary. A member of the PDP BoT had
once told a national daily on why the presidency wanted him at all cost to be
the BoT chair after Obasanjo’s exit. He said that his antecedent in political
organization and arrangement placed him ahead of other aspirants then.
With Jonathan almost in the cold, all eyes are on Anenih now
to see how he can keep the party together and ensure its victory in the 2015
general elections in the face of daunting challenges facing the party. The
leader, as he is fondly called, is an old war horse. His political exploits
since the Second Republic have remained unmatchable, although he has not
contested for any elective political office; he has been instrumental in the
emergence of governors and Presidents of the country at different times.
Having read the handwriting on the wall, he has been calling
for restraints in the ongoing crisis rocking the party. He served successive
governments at the centre, ranging from the days of General Ibrahim Babangida
to the present government of President Jonathan. His services will surely come
handy in 2015.
GOVERNOR BABANGIDA ALIYU
Governor Muazu Babangida Aliyu is the self-styled Chief
Servant of Niger State. He is a technocrat cum politician when he was selected
as the PDP gubernatorial candidate in 2007 after the disqualification of
Alhassan Guna. Since then he has no known political structure until he became
the chairman of the Northern States Governors’ Forum (NSGF), which has since
transformed into a political power bloc.
The role of the NSGF in the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF)
festering crisis is an open secret. As things stand now, he is a member of what
is now known as “New PDP” which plans to upstage the mainstream party. Despite
his recent denial of a gang-up against the president, it is clear that he has
something up his sleeve as we inch towards 2015.
GOVERNOR SULE LAMIDO
The speculation is that governors Sule Lamido and Rotimi
Amaechi have been endorsed by Obasanjo to run a joint ticket of presidential
and vice-presidential candidate respectively. This was after the sighting of a
Lamido/Amaechi campaign vehicle in Kaduna State.
In the meantime, the chairman of the PDP, Jigawa State,
could not resist pledging the state’s support if Lamido and Amaechi were given
the opportunity to lead the country. “They could bail it out from the present
difficult condition it’s fallen into,” he said.
Lamido enjoys the overwhelming support of the people of
Jigawa State to whom he signifies transformation in its entirety. He further
has the support of the state governors of the “new PDP”. These states are
allegedly states with the highest PDP voters and, with that, he is sure to
gather a whole lot of votes. Besides, he seems to have secured the support of
the wealthy former vice-president, Atiku Abubakar.
GOVERNOR ROTIMI AMAECHI
Governor Rotimi Amaechi was not always a politician; he was
at first a public relations officer of Pamo Clinics and Hospitals Limited
(1988) owned by the former governor of Rivers State, Peter Odili. It was in
1992 that he cut into the Rivers political scene as the special assistant to
the deputy governor of Rivers State, Peter Odili. In 1999, he contested and won
a seat to become a member of the Rivers State House of Assembly, representing
Ikwere LGA and was subsequently elected and re-elected speaker of the House in
2003.
In 2007, Amaechi brought a suit over his party’s decision to
make Celestine Omehia the PDP’s gubernatorial candidate. Omehia had been
favoured by then Governor Odili. Amaechi won the suit with the support of the
militants and became Rivers State governor on Oct 26, 2007. He was re-elected
governor in April 2011.
Amaechi is certainly gaining international and national
popularity with the latest intrigues surrounding his political ambition in
recent years. Speculations are rife that he had used his clout as chairman of
the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) to foster his vice-presidential ambition.
Not once but twice. Governors play a critical role in the emergence of
presidential candidates. Amaechi’s position as NGF chairman gives him the
strategic position required to win the backing of critical stakeholders in the
polity.
THE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER (NSA)
As in the case of the police, the office of the National
Security Adviser (NSA) is another agency whose role will be very crucial in
deciding the shape of events during the forthcoming election. Any security
advice from the NSA regarding the corporate peace and existence of Nigeria
concerning the election or any perceived threat from any quarter cannot be
undermined. Such security advice may even trigger off any decision that can be
taken by INEC to the effect of allowing or disallowing any politician to
contest elections.
The NSA, Col. Sambo Dasuki (rtd) is very relevant here as
well as his role as the one who heads the office that coordinates other security
agencies. His objective stance at all times will be a parameter to assess his
performance in office, the credibility of the election and Nigeria at large in
the eyes of the world.
IGP AND THE POLICE
The strategic importance of the role of the police in a
crucial national exercise as the 2015 elections cannot be doubted. Even though
the inspector-general of police, Mr Mohammed Abubakar, is not a politician, his
role as the IGP together with the Nigeria Police Force will determine the shape
of events before and during the elections.
As the head of the police force, his ability to stand firm
or fall to any side in favour of any contender who may wish to use the police
for a particular advantage will contribute in determining the results. For him,
the major challenge ahead is to play according to the rules and to ensure that
the force which he heads does not work in secret or in the open to favour any
candidate. This will earn the police and Abubakar himself more accolades than
anything short of this. His integrity and that of the police would be better
preserved also. Needless to say, the credibility or otherwise of the historic
elections lies so much in the hands of security operatives of which the police
is at the vanguard.
INEC AND JEGA
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and its
chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega, alongside resident electoral commissioners
in the 36 states of the federation seem to be the deciders of where the
pendulum swings at the end of the day, barring judicial interference.
INEC is a making of the law. Under the 1999 Constitution,
the independence of INEC as a body is guaranteed by Section 158(1) which
provides that “the Commission shall not be subject to the direction or control
of any other authority or person when exercising its powers to appoint and
effect disciplinary control over persons. Also, according to Section 4 of the
INEC Establishment Decree and Part 1 of the Third Schedule of the Constitution
(15), the commission is saddled with certain responsibilities in order to
achieve desirable political administration.
The functions include: to register political parties,
organize and supervise all the elections, conduct registration of eligible
voters and compile authentic voter register, monitor the organization and
operation of the political parties including their finances, conduct
registration of eligible voters and compile authentic voter register,
constituency delineation, among several others.
But how the electoral umpire and its personnel will carry
out their mandate is a determinant of what to come in 2015. Given its past
notorious record of outright partiality and reluctance in some instances to do
what is right, INEC can make or mar the 2015 elections.
THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE SERVICES (DSS)
The State Security Service (SSS) is the primary domestic
intelligence agency of Nigeria. It is primarily responsible for intelligence
gathering within the country and for the protection of senior government
officials, particularly the president and state governors. It is one of three
successor organisations to the National Security Organization (NSO) dissolved
in 1986. The SSS operates as a department within the presidency and is under
the control of the national security adviser. The SSS has come under repeated
criticism from both within Nigeria and without; it is viewed as an instrument
of political repression, used by whatever government is in power to harass and
intimidate political opponents. SSS officials maintain that they act
constitutionally, providing needed internal peace and security for the people
of Nigeria. The agency is also known as the Department of State Services (DSS).
Politicians in power might influence the agency to compile a
fictitious dossier on any politician they consider a threat, which will tamper
with his integrity, hence his disqualification from contesting political
office.
It is interesting to note that the body’s action and
inaction, depending on what is involved, will go a long way in determining
2015.
ANTI-GRAFT AGENCIES
The creation of the duo of the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and other related
offences Commission (ICPC) was among the greatest achievements of ex-president
Olusegun Obasanjo. Their mandates are separately the same, that is, to combat
corruption in whatever form and at all levels of the country.
Alas! Not a few see these desirable agencies in this era of
corruption as ready tools in the hands of people in power to hunt their
perceived opponents. A classical case was at the twilight of Obasanjo’s
government in 2007 when the pioneer EFCC boss, Malam Nuhu Ribadu, was in
charge. He raised a lot of dust on the political scene of the country when the
commission came up with a list of purportedly corrupt politicians who were
stopped at the eleventh hour from contesting elections.
The action was believed to be a hatchet job and, in
achieving the objective, it was alleged that Obasanjo had the active support of
the then attorney-general and minister of justice, Bayo Ojo. The trio of
Obasanjo, Ojo and Ribadu allegedly treated then INEC chairman Maurice Iwu with
suspicion. He was seen in the circle as being too close to ex-Adamawa State
governor Boni Haruna and, by implication, close to Obasanjo’s estranged deputy,
Atiku Abubakar.
That action by Ribadu gave the anti-graft agencies a bad
name and many are therefore sceptical of their real motives whenever it is
election time.
THE JUDICIARY
The Judiciary is widely believed to be the last beacon of
hope for anybody who is aggrieved. The third estate of the realm is known for
redressing injustice but, unfortunately, politics has found its way into the
sacred temple of justice and destroyed the very virtue of justice therein.
An independent judiciary is universally acknowledged as one
of the most defining and definitive features of a functional democracy. Many
see it as an essential barrier against abuse of power, authoritarianism and
arbitrariness. How it functions as well as how the various stakeholders in a
democratic experiment appropriate its interventions and role in the polity are
critical indicators of the health or otherwise of a democracy.
Some members of the bench have been accused of trading
judgement for money which caused great brouhaha. Therefore, if the judiciary
compromised its independence at any point, the result would be as unpleasant as
the cases in Osun and Sokoto states’ post-gubernatorial elections.
By LEADERSHIP's Bode Gbadebo, Paul Chiama, Adah Abah and
Chikelu Chinelo
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